FED Minutes or give the euro and the US dollar gift gold or loser

Published: 19:40:19 2015/5/20 19:40:19  Views: 914

FX168 hearing dollar index on Wednesday (May 20) continued the upward trend of the last three trading days, the early European market dollar hit 95.83, then fell back. Euro yesterday by the European Central Bank [microblogging] Kohl said to pressure to accelerate the purchase of bonds, the euro / dollar, the lowest dropping 1.1063, near two-week low refresh Spot gold is approaching 1200 mark, the lowest hit $ 1,202.91 / oz on Wednesday, four in the morning the focus of market attention event - would debut Fed minutes Market analysis bullish about the dollar is expected to gain positive support.

$ 3 with Yang meet big blockbuster event dovish Fed has spoken again

Dollar on Wednesday continued the upward trend of the last three trading days, the beginning of the European market, the dollar index dollar hit 95.83, then fell back, waiting for news guidelines Fed meeting minutes tomorrow morning.

Technically, the daily level, the dollar index broke on Feb(http://www.fireinews.com/). shock interval along, short-term risk is still biased upward, MACD indicators MACD double form, significantly expanding red column kinetic energy. If the summary information is somewhat hawkish, or is expected to recover to $ 96 mark, short-term support below 95.50 concern.

Overnight the US April housing starts rate increased significantly by 20.2%, far exceeding the expected growth of 9(Finance News http://www.fireinews.com/).9%, the former value increased by 4.9%, which also allow the market to re-summon the confidence in the US economy.

DailyFX Currency Analyst Christopher Vecchio said the US April construction data significantly better than expected, the market sentiment changes, the dollar index rebounded sharply.

Vecchio said that 'the dollar is one of the last five weeks was the most weak-currency, partly because US economic data worsen economic winds may be changing, in April non-farm employment and housing data are to rebound.'

French bank Credit Agricole (Credit Agricole) analyst, said in a recent analysis, the US dollar exchange rate fluctuations have reached the turning point, the Bank will continue to short the euro / dollar.

The analysts believe that the dollar's recent strength is mainly after a series of weak US economic data, unbalanced positions and depressed valuations over weighed on the dollar, now fixed. In March the Fed's trade-weighted dollar index once rose to highs, Since the end of 2014 to 20% gains, while the cut-off last week, the dollar retracement of the rally have not yet reached the quarter.

He also noted that 'the market position of the current situation also shows that the dollar has recovered from the sell-off in March, the evidence showed that the US economy is recovering from a weak first quarter, and the decline in the dollar from the current.'

US Federal Reserve Chairman days in Chicago, large dove Evans (Charles Evans) once again made a speech, he reiterated that the Fed should not be in this position to start raising interest rates.

Evans presentation speech in Munich, said: 'I think the policy should be loose enough so that personal consumption expenditures inflation could reach at least 2% of the performance of more than 50% in two years.'

Evans also said, 'My personal view is that conditions can trigger an early Fed rate hike will be the core inflation rate significantly higher than the unemployment rate held steady at 1.5% or 5%.'

He also noted that wage growth will be strong to convince me to support a strong indicator of an early rate hike, but I expect this will not happen.

01:30 am Beijing time Thursday, Fed Vice Chairman Fisher on the ECB's central bank forum on 'the euro area in the past, present and future challenges,' speech, he may mention in his speech for the US economy outlook.

Fed meeting minutes tomorrow morning to turn the dollar staged a surprise gain?

The Fed will release April 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes at 02:00 GMT on Thursday, this week, the market is most concerned about the focus of the event, investors will look for the Fed to the economy, inflation and hike promising clues.

The most critical point rate hike is certainly a problem. Some investors are trying to determine the United States nearly 10 years, the timing of the first rate hike, they will look for the Fed's minutes of the meeting officials confirmed that the US economy out of the bleak situation in the first quarter turnaround clues. Bloomberg May 8-13 survey of economists forecast the median income, the Fed may raise interest rates in September.

FOMC policy statement in April, said the economic slowdown to some extent reflects the impact of 'temporary factors', but they still expect the economy will grow at a moderate pace.

RBS Securities in Stamford, Connecticut, United States economist Guy Berger said, 'if they are in the minutes of transient factors quite confident enough to say, this is a signal: FOMC is likely to think that they will raise interest rates in September if. Their tone is full of doubt, it is said that after the Minga rest time may be against. '

Employment and inflation are also market attention topic. Fed officials reiterated in April, hoping to wait until the job market further to the good, they are medium-term inflation will be moving towards the 2% target level have to raise interest rates after the considerable confidence.

Fed policy committee served as an economist, the incumbent Cornerstone Macro LLC in Washington, said partner Roberto Perli, issue 'FOMC internal discussions' is more likely to be 'we will soon reach the threshold of take rate action?', Most likely The answer is 'No'. '

Dutta is expected Minutes Fed officials might imply confidence in the inflation rate will climb has been enhanced, '' Oil prices are stabilizing and even higher dollar fell. Inflation is expected to heat up. '

In addition, the Fed on 'uncertainties' strong dollar also hinder the economy as investors worried about the former Fed economist Policy Committee, currently a professor at Johns Hopkins University, said Jonathan Wright pointed out, 'the stronger dollar dragged down exports and consumers to save up more money, spending less than previously expected. '

Wright believes that the policy statement in April, showing that the situation may not be the possibility of temporary, so they may be elaborated on this in the minutes.

In the opinion of some investment banks, FOMC Meeting Minutes discipline or show participants discussed the growth of the problem, which will give the dollar positive message, the dollar or to resume its rally.

Credit Suisse (Credit Suisse) is expected strategist Ric Deverell, FOMC meeting minutes may show, participants discussed the make the United States a quarter of temporary factors weigh on economic growth and a more long-term factors, which would support the dollar rally.

Deverell said, 'minutes of the meeting may also show, participants explored the next rate hike in the standard, the particular aim of Fed officials on inflation rate in the next two to three years rose 2 percent reported some confidence needed to progress as long as no further disappointing US data, we expect the dollar to resume its rally in the coming weeks. '

Euro and gold and a 'loser' down trend has only just begun?

The dollar index signs of a comeback, this week, losing ground to the euro, short 'Arrogance.' Gold has also been pressure from the dollar overnight, spot gold fell $ 20, will be erased nearly half of last week's gains.

Euro / dollar fell to 1.1063 intraday low, refresh near two-week low. Technically, last week's low of 1.1130 after the cracked, the euro was revised risk end of the trend, the bottom support near 1.1035 on concern along the pre-shock interval.

German commercial banks (Commerzbank) in the days of analysis noted 1.1120 support line cracked, the position by the support becomes resistance, 1.1200 integer off and 5 May high of 1.1223 are also short-term weak resistance to the downside, below 1.1100 integer off After 1.1065, the break is a follow-up to the mid-position space will be opened.

The bank, currency strategist Karen Jones believes that the exchange rate in February highs and near 50% retracement of the decline 1.1513 / 34 encounter selling pressure build-up, the outlook points to 1.1052 key support, this bit is March 26 high, and 1.1031 support line break after the daily close below the market rebound, medium-term downtrend will restart.

Subject to the good US data weighed on spot gold fell more than $ 20 overnight. Days, the price of gold touched the lowest 1202.91, once again approaching the 1200 mark. Spot silver also fell to 17.03 level.

James Steel, HSBC (HSBC) analyst said: 'The price could not be maintained at the 200-day moving average of $ 1,216 / ounce level, which indicates that the gold price will rise from the recent consolidation in.'

Merrill Lynch (Bank of America Merrill Lynch) MacNeil Curry technology called global strategy director, silver plummeted overnight just to start a new round of crash.

Curry silver next few weeks will be maintained at 15-17 dollar range, once again breaking down, may go to around $ 13. This will be the first time. This position is lower than the current price of more than 20% since 2009.

Article Keywords: dollar euro gold investment

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